President Barack Obama had said “no deal means a greater chance of more war in the Middle East”. So after over 3 decades of conflict Iran has struck a deal with United States and 5 other world powers. The future of Iran’s Nuclear Programs is now dictated by this nuclear deal. The 100-page agreement is going to play a pivotal role in shaping Iran’s Nuclear Programs. While the deal has a lot of information, we have 5 point about the deal that can help you understand it.
Iran’s Nuclear Programs will be curbed
Right from the beginning, at its core, the deal was aimed at stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. This deal has limited the way in which Iran planned its nuclear programs.
According to the deal, the Fordo facility will be converted into a research center.
The Fordo facility has been under speculation for a long time as experts stipulate that Iran may be enriching uranium in the centrifuges at Fordo. The Fordo facility is located underground. Its strategic location makes the facility almost invulnerable to military strikes.
Image credit: www.whitehouse.gov
Iran will give up most of its centrifuges bringing it down from 20,000 to 6,104 in the next 10 years. Iran will also give up the most advanced centrifuges and use only the old models.
The deal also includes Iran’s agreement to rebuild the Arak heavy-water reactor. The designs for rebuilding the site will go through international approval so that the production of weapons-grade plutonium will be impossible under the new design.
All of these changes will be incorporated in different phases. This means that it will take Iran almost a decade to bring these changes into effect. These means that U.S. still has to make provisions for Iran’s nuclear advances till the time the constraints of the deal are not fully imposed.
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Iran gets to Continue Enrichment
When Iranian President Hassan Rouhani was elected in 2013, he indicated his intentions to strike a deal with the rest of the world powers to contain economic sanctions which were crippling the country and fuelling unemployment. However, Tehran described its nuclear program to be peaceful and Iran showed no signs of giving up the nuclear program entirely.
With a deal struck, Iran’s biggest win is that it can continue to enrich uranium for peaceful reasons. The amount of uranium enrichment is limited to 3.67% which is considered fairly low for weapon’s production.
As a part of the deal, Iran will also reduce its stock of uranium by 98%. The country currently has 10,000 kg of enriched uranium. Iran will get to keep 300kg uranium enriched at no more than 3.67%. This means that Iran may possibly start shipping the excessive uranium amounts to Russia.
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This part of the agreement does not complement the U.S. strategy. Years of opposition to the Iranian nuclear program has ended in co-operation where Iran gets to keep the program albeit with certain restrictions.
The U.S. Claims that the deal makes an Iranian Nuclear Bomb more difficult
The deal has undergone a lot of scrutiny by those who find the deal is not going to contain Iran’s Nuclear Programs effectively. The white House estimates that at the time when the deal was not in place, Iran’s breakout time was two to three months. Breakout time is the time the country requires to produce enough enriched material for a nuclear bomb.
Image credit: www.whitehouse.gov
With the deal in place, Iran’s breakout time will be almost a year or maybe more. This will guarantee enough time for the U.S. and the deal will allow the U.S. to get a better insight into the capabilities of Iran so that the country can prepare itself for the future.
If Iran Does not Comply, Sanctions can Return
The deal lays out a scheme which says that if a dispute arises with respect to Iran meeting its obligations, then the entire U.N. Security Council will vote on a resolution to continue the sanctions lifting.
The U.S. sees this as a ‘snap back’ provision keeping in mind that the U.N. sanctions will be put on Iran if the country fails to meet its obligations.
Inspection is the Key
The deal entails that continuous monitoring of the nuclear program will be done to ensure that Iran does not continue to create a bomb conspicuously. If the U.N. Nuclear agency becomes aware of a suspicious location then they can ask for inspection of the site. However, if Iran refuses, an arbitration panel will look into the details and decide whether Iran has to open the site for inspection within 24 days.
This means that if the U.S. want to access some of the most sensitive sites then there is a possibility that Iran may get it delayed.